How it works
Where the rating comes from
HINAS is short for Hope Is Not A Strategy — the whole point of the product. Every rating is built from public weather data, your venue pin, and the limits your event actually fails at. Here is the short version.
The pipeline
- 1
Your pin & window
Exact coordinates, local timezone, start and end time.
- 2
Data pulled
Forecast models, ensembles, airport observations, 30-year records.
- 3
Your limits applied
Wind, gusts, rain, heat, cold, lightning — thresholds you can tune.
- 4
Rating + confidence
A 0-100 conditions score, any watch items, and how much the sources agree.
Reading the scale
The conditions score starts at 100. Points come off for heat, cold, rain, wind, storms and low visibility — measured against your event's own limits first. Here's what each range means in practice:
85–100 Excellent
Nothing in the forecast changes how the day runs.
70–84 Good
Minor discomfort, but no real adjustments needed.
55–69 Mixed
At least one factor will be felt — plan small adjustments.
40–54 Rough
Attendees and crew will struggle without changes.
0–39 Severe
Conditions work against the event at a fundamental level.
What we look at
Global forecast models
National weather agency models, sampled at your exact pin — hour by hour, out to about two weeks.
Ensemble spread
Many model runs of the same hour. When they agree, confidence rises. When they scatter, it drops.
Nearby airport observations
Live METAR reports from the closest reporting station — reality-checks the models near event time.
30 years of reanalysis records
Three decades of hourly records for your venue and calendar window, used before any forecast exists.
Lightning tracking
Convective signals and strike proximity, watched on their own timeline with the 30/30 safety rule.
How the rating changes as your date nears
Weeks out
Historical outlook
No forecast exists yet. You see what this venue typically does on this date — clearly marked as history, not a forecast.
About 1–2 weeks
Early forecast, blended
A thin forecast appears. The conditions rating leads, and history either backs it or disagrees — nudging confidence up or down.
Final days
Forecast-led
The forecast is mature and observations join in. History collapses into a footnote under Sources.